A Tale of Two Markets
For this month’s statistics, I analyzed the Santa Ynez Valley real estate market by price range.
Following the theme of last month’s blog, the low-end and lower-mid range of the market is very strong and considered a strong seller’s market*. The inventory is low and based on the number of properties entering into escrow we have from 1-3 months of inventory.
From the upper-middle range to the high-end of the market ($800,000+) it is considered to be a strong buyer’s market* with 13+ months of inventory, based on the current trend of property entering escrow compared to active listings.
Click here to view the year to date statistics (January 1st through October 31st) which support the above.
That being said, a property in any price range that is priced well will sell quickly, as there is quite a bit of pent-up demand. As a matter of fact in Santa Barbara multiple offers are occurring quite regularly. The Santa Ynez market closely follows the Santa Barbara market, so it is only a matter of time. In addition, the low end is the first to be affected by economic downturns and it is the first to recover. The recovery of the low-end will have a trickle-up affect to the higher-end over time.
| *Guide: |
| 0-3 months Sellers’ market |
| 6-9 months Buyers’ market |
| 6-9 months Buyers’ market |
| 9-12 months weak market |
There is quite a bit of positive economic news, but the issue of high unemployment tends to overshadow much of this. The following is a link for an informative and positive press release from the Federal Reserve: click here
With prices and interest rates at an all-time low and a good selection of inventory, especially in the mid to upper range, it is a “perfect storm” for buying.
Please feel free to contact me with any questions or if you would like any additional information.
Jenaé Johnson Broker Associate Mobile: 805.452.9812 Village Properties Lic# 01308742Balanced Real Estate Market?
As a person who closely follows the market, I was surprised to see while putting together recent statistics for the Santa Ynez Valley that the market is considered to be at a *balanced level.
The lower-end price range of the market, and therefore certain areas of The Valley, are recovering faster than others. Areas with homes priced in the lower end (Buellton, Solvang and Los Alamos) are among those with a very limited inventory. We are beginning to see the mid-range market follow suit and it is only a matter of time before the high-end market follows.
Click here to view the year to date statistics (January 1st through September 30th) which support the above.
Note-There are properties in escrow, but in an effort to get back-up offers they may not recorded as such. I believe that we will see properties go from a status of active to sold without much lead-time, which will therefore skew the picture of the true level of activity.
| *Guide: |
| 0-3 months Sellers’ market |
| 3-6 months balanced Market |
| 6-9 months Buyers’ market |
| 9-12 months weak market |
Please contact me with any questions or if you would like any additional information.
Jenaé Johnson Broker Associate Mobile: 805.452.9812 Village Properties Lic# 01308742Is the Worst Over?
On August 25, 2009, The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index indicated the the home sales prices are moderating at a faster rate than expected.
On September 1, 2009 the Associated Press reported that the Housing and Manufacturing sectors are showing signs of strength. Home construction, pending home sale and manufacturing are all at their highest levels in 10 to 18 months.
Consumer Confidence rebounded in August after a slight decline in July.
July Pending Home Sales are at their highest level in 2 years and are rebounding faster than expected. “The overall trend toward stabilization is undeniable at this point,” wrote Mike Larson, real estate analyst at Weiss Research. According to the National Association of Realtors “Pending Home Sales Are on a Record Roll”.
According to Forbes.com, Santa Barbara is among the top 10 best cities for a housing recovery.
For the 4th straight month in a row, new home sales surged and for the first time in 3 years home prices post quarterly rise.
Federal Reserve Chair, Ben Bernanke, has stated that he believes that the worst is over.
According to a recent survey by Relocation.com, people are moving for happier reasons.
Within the next week I will be posting statistics and graphs related directly to the Santa Ynez Valley real estate market on my web site, www.HomesOfSantaYnez.com.
Jenaé Johnson Broker Associate Mobile: 805.452.9812 Village Properties Lic# 01308742Have We Reached the Bottom of the Market?
On Thursday, July 9, 2009, IAS360, a leader in default management and residential collateral valuations, released its House Price Index which indicates that the national house prices gained 1.6% in May.
New home sales in June increased 11% when compared to May sales, which is the largest increase in more than 8 years. According to David Resler, chief economist at Nomura Securities, “The worst of the housing recession is now behind us.”
According to Jonathan Dienhart, Director of Published Research for HWMI, “The incremental gains since March are counter to (the) typical seasonal trend, which suggests the market has found the bottom and is truly stabilizing, albeit slowly.”
As for the local Santa Ynez Valley market, the trend indicates (via the adjacent Market Velocity graph) that we are seeing a shift in the *days of inventory, which is now close to 1/2 when compared to the highest point.
Speaking with Realtors in other areas where there is a larger number of “starter” homes, they are now seeing multiple offers on homes that at one time would have been considered over-priced. As the low-end of the market recovers we are seeing an upward trickle affect. Generally speaking the low-end of the market is the first to be affected and the first to recover.
*Market Velocity-Days of Inventory-the number of days that it will take to eliminate the inventory at the rate properties are entering escrow.
If you are interested in Real Estate in the Santa Ynez Valley, Santa Barbara, Hollister Ranch or surrounding areas, please contact me at jenae@jenae-johnson.com or 805.452.9812.
You can also visit my web site at www.HomesOfSantaYnez.com
Jenaé Johnson Broker Associate Village Properties Lic# 01308742Why Should I Buy Now?
Why Should I Buy Now?
No one will know when the bottom has hit until it has already turned around.
We are already beginning to see positive indicators on many fronts and with the rise in consumer confidence people are once again out buying.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index™ 
Increases Sharply
• Consumer confidence is up considerably again in May at 54.9 from 40.8 in April according to the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index TM. This is highest level since September 2008.
Forecasters Say Recession Nearing End
• 90% of economist think that we are near the end of the recession. Almost 75% of these economist think that the recession will end in the third quarter of 2009. The remaining economist think that the recession will end in the first quarter of 2010.
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Jump
• As of April existing home sales in the West rose 19.4% annualized over the year before.
Single-Family Home Construction Up Again in April, CBIA Announces
• New home permits pulled in California are up 21% in April over the previous month. The number of permits pulled is at its highest since October 2008.
Homeownership Still Pays ~ Home-equity snapshots paint a bright picture.
“In comparison to renters, home owners have greater wealth. Home equity gains are a rule rather than an exception… The data clearly show that homeownership remains the biggest store of wealth for the typical household, even when markets are buffeted by some admittedly very rocky years.”
- According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), housing affordability is at its highest level since NAR began tracking the measure.
If you are interested in Real Estate in the Santa Ynez Valley, Santa Barbara, Hollister Ranch or surrounding areas, please contact me at jenae@jenae-johnson.com or 805.452.9812.
You can also visit my web site at www.HomesOfSantaYnez.com
Jenaé Johnson Broker Associate Village Properties Lic# 01308742Share This Blog
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